Ongoing negotiations between Russia and Turkey will continue to shape the momentum in the region – and the extent to which the November 9 ceasefire agreement will be implemented. If Russia and Turkey fail to reach an agreement on key issues, the conflict could erupt again. The nine-point agreement from November 9 to 10 was hastily signed by Pashinyan, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev and Russian President Vladimir Putin, while the conflict was still raging in the middle of Karabakh after the fall of Shusha. (The agreement entered into force at midnight in Moscow, which was already 1 a.m. in Armenia and Azerbaijan.) A Russian peacekeeping force was sent to the region almost instantly, indicating considerable advance planning on Moscow`s part, but arrived without a specific mandate. The November agreement could open up the possibility of reinventing the South Caucasus, with new transport links and economic cooperation possible for the first time since Soviet times. It is planned to restore the road and rail link between Nakhchivan and the rest of Azerbaijan via Armenia. Armenians may also be able to travel from Yerevan to southern Armenia and Iran via Nakhchivan, a much easier route than Armenia`s highland roads. However, all this will be difficult without political rapprochement.

“In accordance with an agreement negotiated by the Russian side, the fire on the eastern part of the Armenian-Azerbaijani border has been stopped and the situation is relatively stable,” the Armenian Defense Ministry said. Strategic calculations may not be easy when emotions are still high. Horrific war videos of atrocities against prisoners, including beheadings, arouse revulsion and anger. The prisoners are still being held and the remains of the bodies have not been returned. In much of their rhetoric and actions, the two countries continue to pretend to be at war. Armenians seem traumatized by their sudden reversal of fate, and many voices, especially those opposed to Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, insist that the November agreement has no legal status and can be rejected. A minority promises to recover the land lost by force. Further north, before the ceasefire agreement, Azerbaijan demanded the return of seven villages in the Kazakh district – three of which are in Soviet-era enclaves surrounded by Armenian territory – as well as the Kerki enclave next to Nakhchivan. Here it is the Armenian side that refuses to abandon the land. Armenians also point to an enclave called Artsvashen, which belonged to Armenia in Soviet times but was conquered by the Azerbaijanis in 1992.

These territorial issues could have been postponed, subject to international arbitration or an agreement on territorial trade, but are causing new ill will between the two countries. Armenia, Azerbaijan and Russia are reportedly about to sign a new agreement on the demarcation and demarcation of borders and the opening of transport links. According to Russian and Armenian news agencies, the agreement will be announced on the anniversary of the Russian-brokered ceasefire. The leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan met for the first time in nearly a year, and the second time since they fought a war last year. Although they have not signed long-awaited agreements to ease the ongoing tensions between the two countries, they have officially promised to form a bilateral commission to demarcate and demarcate their mutual border. Erdoğan`s role in the conflict also demonstrates a continued willingness to internationalize his military power in order to simultaneously confront Russia and work with Putin to reach smart deals that reshape the geopolitics of the region on the basis of a populist-nationalist perspective aimed at alienating the United States and the European Union. Aliyev made a good point about his willingness to ignore the US – unthinkable only a decade ago – by refusing to end hostilities after the US-brokered ceasefire on October 30. In a speech of 1. In November, in which he explained his position, Aliyev noted that he was “sending delegations to negotiate.” but is counting on his fists to change the status quo.

Therefore, the ongoing negotiations between Russia and Turkey – countries ready to use force in the region – will continue to shape the conflict without the Minsk Group making any effort to allocate resources to the conflict zone. But is the agreement enough to build a bridge to lasting peace, or will its weaknesses revive the fighting? The largest group of prisoners consists of at least sixty-two Armenians captured in December during clashes in two villages in the southern Hadrut district of Nagorno-Karabakh, killing six Armenians and two Azerbaijanis. The Armenian side claims that these men defended two Armenian villages in an area that should have been under the protection of Russian peacekeepers. The Azerbaijani side says that because they were captured after the November 10 ceasefire agreement and were “saboteurs”, they must be prosecuted. But overall, without any effort to challenge their actions or turn disagreements between them into strategic decoupling, Russia and Turkey will continue to use proxy conflicts like this to violently reshape conditions in their favor. After all, both have shown that they are willing to ignore international norms and pursue high-risk policies to reshape the regional and global order. After the signing of the humiliating ceasefire agreement of the 10th. Pashinyan has faced calls for his resignation not only from opposition parties, but also from President Armen Sargsyan (who is head of state but mainly has ceremonial powers) and heads of various branches of the Church. Pashinyan decided to fight for his position and blamed his predecessors for the defeat. Despite a dramatic drop in popularity compared to the dizzying ratings he enjoyed after the 2018 Velvet Revolution, he has so far managed to cling to power. The Russian-brokered ceasefire agreement of November 9, which ended 44 days of war in Nagorno-Karabakh, appears to be holding. This is largely because the dominant power of that time, Azerbaijan, made significant gains and because at least some Armenian-majority areas will be protected by the rapid deployment of 2,000 Russian forces to implement the military terms of the agreement.

Armenia, Azerbaijan and Russia have signed an agreement to end the military conflict over the controversial Nagorno-Karabakh enclave. Putin said a transport deal would be reached “very soon,” and he stressed Russia`s interest in doing so. “My colleagues have informed me of how the work is going – it`s difficult, but this work is still at an advanced stage,” he said. Before the meeting, there was a lot of speculation that the three would sign additional agreements, especially one on the formal demarcation and demarcation of the borders between Armenia and Azerbaijan and another on the opening of new transport routes between the two countries, especially a road through Armenia that connects the Azerbaijani mainland to its enclave of Nakhchivan. In the Armenian capital Yerevan, according to local media, a large crowd gathered to protest the deal. They burst into parliament and government buildings and shouted, “We will not give up. President Aliyev said the agreement was of “historic importance” and amounted to a “capitulation” by Armenia. The agreement (“Statement by the President of the Republic of Azerbaijan, the Prime Minister of the Republic of Armenia and the President of the Russian Federation”) states: After the meeting, Pashinyan also said that the parties were very close to an agreement on transport, but did not give any details. The 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh Ceasefire Agreement is a ceasefire agreement that ended the Nagorno-Karabakh war in 2020. It was signed on November 9 by Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Russian President Vladimir Putin and ended all hostilities in the Nagorno-Karabakh region from 00:00 on November 10, 2020, Moscow time. [1] [2] The President of the self-proclaimed Republic of Artsakh, Arayik Harutyunyan, also agreed to an end to hostilities.

[3] Turkish President Recep Tayyip ErdoÄan has publicly called for a review of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) Minsk process, which would give Turkey a greater role in the negotiations. ErdoÄan apparently also expected Turkey to be part of a joint peacekeeping force with Russia. A bilateral agreement between Moscow and Ankara has not been published. So far, Turkey`s engagement seems much more limited. Its main task in the field is to participate in an observation center set up in the city of Aghdam, whose functions have not yet been fully clarified. According to the agreement, the two warring parties undertook to exchange prisoners of war and the dead. In addition, the Armenian armed forces were to withdraw from the Armenian-occupied areas around Nagorno-Karabakh by December 1. A Russian peacekeeping force of about 2,000 men composed of Russian ground troops was to be sent to the region for at least five years, one of its tasks being to protect the Lachin corridor, which connects Armenia and the Nagorno-Karabakh region. .